Cambridge researcher Luke Kemp, affiliated with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, has issued a sobering prediction: the world might meet its demise by 2050 just 25 years from now. Kemp, speaking on The Great Simplification podcast with host Nate Hagens, argues that our modern civilization risks self-destruction through systemic decay and monumental shocks. His analysis is grounded in historical instances of societal collapse and current technological and environmental vulnerabilities.
Ancient Patterns, Modern Threats
In his book Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, Kemp introduces the concept of “self-terminating” civilizations. History, he contends, reveals a consistent pattern: as elites siphon resources, societies become increasingly fragile, marked by inequality, environmental degradation, poor governance, and diminishing public health. Over time, this fragility makes civilizations susceptible to collapse from external shocks like war, climate upheaval, or pandemics.
The Carrington Event: A Solar Time Bomb
Kemp cites a historical phenomenon with potentially catastrophic implications: the Carrington Event of 1859, when a massive solar flare temporarily disrupted telegraph systems. If a similar solar storm occurred today, it could annihilate essential electrical infrastructures—from banking systems and healthcare to the internet and transport—bringing civilization to a halt. Shockingly, the probability of such an event is estimated to rise by approximately 20.3% every decade, meaning there’s around a 50% chance of it happening by 2050.
Bunkers and Elites Preparing for Collapse
Faced with these looming dangers, some wealthy individuals are already taking survival into their own hands. Kemp describes a burgeoning industry of luxury bunkers—complete with hydroponic farms, simulated sunlight gardens, and wine vaults—built for elite survival. Some are reportedly operated by ex–Navy SEALs, underlining the lengths to which the ultra-wealthy will go to safeguard themselves from global collapse.
Existential Risks Amplified
Beyond solar flares, Kemp points to an intersection of existential threats: climate change, nuclear proliferation, engineered pandemics, and unchecked AI. These compounded risks—coupled with societal fragility—create a perilous environment where normal disturbances could trigger cascading failure. The convergence of unequal power, environmental stress, and technological threats amplifies the chance of a collapse that could extend across the globe .
Is Doom Inevitable?
Kemp’s warning isn’t mere alarmism—it reflects a historical continuum: societies have collapsed before, and none have matched our global scale. He underscores that, unlike past civilizations which could be succeeded by new societies, a collapse of our modern interconnected Goliath could leave no one to carry on. The possibility that civilization could be hollowed out irreversibly raises pressing questions about our future
Closing Thoughts
As we stand at a crossroads, Kemp’s message is clear: our current trajectory is unsustainable. The clock is ticking, and the risk is rising. His analysis serves not just as a warning, but as a call to action—urging reform, resilience, and a reevaluation of our societal priorities if we hope to avert disaster.
Conclusion
The prediction that humanity could face extinction within the next 25 years is not a prophecy set in stone, but rather a stark warning of what could happen if society continues on its current path. Luke Kemp’s analysis highlights how fragile our global systems have become and how quickly they could unravel under the weight of environmental, technological, and social pressures. Whether this grim forecast becomes reality depends on humanity’s willingness to address inequality, invest in resilience, and mitigate the growing risks of modern civilization. The future is still unwritten—but the time to act is now.
